About USD/JPY Currency Rate Forecast
Short-term USD/JPY price forecast for 2024
What Affects the Dollar to Yen Rate?
How to Predict the Dollar to Yen Exchange Rate
With the Japanese national currency being one of the top Forex traders’ choices, the yen exchange rate forecast is always a big question. This article provides insights into experts’ opinions about the future of the Japanese yen, as well as technical analysis of the pair rate, and predictions from 2024 to 2028. Aside from seeing the Japanese yen forecast, you will also find out what factors define its price, and how to make data-driven projections.
The value of the yen appears to be finally stabilizing after a steep slide spanning three years. According to a Bloomberg study of market players, stronger Japanese currency values are anticipated in 2024. The average USD/JPY forecast is 135.00 by the end of 2024.
Here are USD/JPY currency rate predictions by different banks:
HSBC currency experts predict that during the next five years, increasing stock markets and US rates will cause the US dollar to revert to its fair value, which is now overpriced. By mid-2024, HSBC researchers predict that the pair's exchange rate will hit 120.00.
Year | Yearly Low (¥) | Yearly High (¥) |
---|---|---|
2024 | ¥ 149.11 | ¥ 170.10 |
2025 | ¥ 149.10 | ¥ 202.21 |
2026 | ¥ 193.32 | ¥ 208.91 |
2027 | ¥ 166.21 | ¥ 201.70 |
2028 | ¥ 179.07 | ¥ 196.57 |
2029 | ¥ 174.18 | ¥ 190.28 |
2030 | ¥ 174.86 | ¥ 186.45 |
Basically, the Japanese yen forecast for 2024 is a breakout of the 152.00 resistance level in a few months to a year if the Bank of Japan sticks to its current monetary policy, maintaining a negative interest rate, and the Fed takes its time moving toward a more accommodative monetary course. This will trigger a rate rise and new record highs.
Month | Open | Low-High | Close | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mar | 150 | 146-152 | 149 | -0.7% |
Apr | 149 | 146-153 | 148 | -1.3% |
May | 148 | 148-153 | 151 | 0.7% |
Jun | 151 | 151-158 | 156 | 4.0% |
Jul | 156 | 149-156 | 151 | 0.7% |
Aug | 151 | 146-151 | 148 | -1.3% |
Sep | 148 | 148-152 | 150 | 0.0% |
Oct | 150 | 150-156 | 154 | 2.7% |
Nov | 154 | 154-160 | 158 | 5.3% |
Dec | 158 | 154-158 | 156 | 4.0% |
Technically speaking, any further advance is probably going to run against strong resistance in the range of 150.65–150.70. This is logical after a multi-month high that was reached in February near the 150.90 zone. If this level is cleared forcefully, bullish traders will regard it as a new catalyst. The USD/JPY pair may then rise to the 151.45 barrier en route to the 152.00 level, or a long-term peak retested in November 2023, given that oscillators on the daily chart remain restrained in the positive region.
Conversely, the psychological threshold of 150.00 appears to be guarding against further declines, below which current prices may return to the low, which is located in the 149.20 range.
As for a longer-term prediction, we can see that the dollar keeps gaining strength, touching the support line three times since 2020. If trend continues, the dollar/yen pair may reach the rate of 200 or more by 2028.
During 2023, the USD/JPY rate kept within the range of 130 to 152, with the US dollar showing signs of moderate growth. A combination of global events, central bank policies, and economic indicators led to a notable 19% gain in the rate in 2023. Throughout the year, the USD/JPY pair reached a high of 151.93 in November due to the difference between the US's rising interest rates and Japan's stable policies.
By December 2023, the USD/JPY rate stabilized around 145 as the Fed loosened its stance and Japan stuck to its policies.
Month | Open | Close |
---|---|---|
Jan 01, 2024 | 140.9520 | 147.3690 |
Dec 01, 2023 | 147.9990 | 141.0200 |
Nov 01, 2023 | 151.2940 | 147.0390 |
Sep 30, 2023 | 149.3700 | 149.1110 |
Aug 31, 2023 | 145.4730 | 149.3700 |
Jul 31, 2023 | 142.3230 | 146.0990 |
Jun 30, 2023 | 144.2900 | 140.7580 |
May 31, 2023 | 139.1270 | 144.7800 |
Apr 30, 2023 | 136.3860 | 139.7920 |
Mar 31, 2023 | 132.7700 | 136.3200 |
Mar 01, 2023 | 136.3480 | 133.2010 |
Feb 01, 2023 | 130.1100 | 136.3170 |
Jan 01, 2023 | 131.1100 | 130.4790 |
During 2025, the USD/JPY rate is expected to keep growing, taking into account the US government’s policy on fighting inflation rates, and Japan’s conservative take on its economy. Significant changes (over 1%) in rates are not expected.
Month | Min | Max | Change |
---|---|---|---|
January 2025 | 162.324 | 162.652 | 0.2% ▲ |
February 2025 | 162.705 | 164.690 | 1.21% ▲ |
March 2025 | 164.727 | 166.089 | 0.82% ▲ |
April 2025 | 166.179 | 167.772 | 0.95% ▲ |
May 2025 | 167.791 | 169.132 | 0.79% ▲ |
June 2025 | 169.185 | 170.299 | 0.65% ▲ |
July 2025 | 170.349 | 170.741 | 0.22% ▲ |
August 2025 | 170.730 | 171.842 | 0.65% ▲ |
September 2025 | 171.905 | 173.395 | 0.86% ▲ |
October 2025 | 173.423 | 174.777 | 0.77% ▲ |
November 2025 | 174.847 | 176.218 | 0.78% ▲ |
December 2025 | 176.238 | 177.022 | 0.44% ▲ |
Unless the US economy experiences a shock, the USD/JPY forecast for 2026 is a steady rise with some higher fluctuations. For example, It may grow by 1.1% in February and experience about 0.7% spikes in the last quarter of 2026.
Month | Min | Max | Change |
---|---|---|---|
January 2026 | 177.027 | 177.363 | 0.19% ▲ |
February 2026 | 177.424 | 179.403 | 1.1% ▲ |
March 2026 | 179.451 | 180.814 | 0.75% ▲ |
April 2026 | 180.886 | 182.470 | 0.87% ▲ |
May 2026 | 182.503 | 183.854 | 0.73% ▲ |
June 2026 | 183.903 | 185.033 | 0.61% ▲ |
July 2026 | 185.066 | 185.461 | 0.21% ▲ |
August 2026 | 185.452 | 186.556 | 0.59% ▲ |
September 2026 | 186.633 | 188.113 | 0.79% ▲ |
October 2026 | 188.124 | 189.483 | 0.72% ▲ |
November 2026 | 189.562 | 190.943 | 0.72% ▲ |
December 2026 | 190.977 | 191.724 | 0.39% ▲ |
Over 2027, the USD/JPY pair can overcome a long-awaited 200 level. February and September can be marked with the highest spikes of 1% and 0.73% correspondingly.
Month | Min | Max | Change |
---|---|---|---|
January 2027 | 191.742 | 192.084 | 0.18% ▲ |
February 2027 | 192.139 | 194.126 | 1.02% ▲ |
March 2027 | 194.170 | 195.521 | 0.69% ▲ |
April 2027 | 195.576 | 197.182 | 0.81% ▲ |
May 2027 | 197.217 | 198.572 | 0.68% ▲ |
June 2027 | 198.634 | 199.750 | 0.56% ▲ |
July 2027 | 199.766 | 200.183 | 0.2% ▲ |
August 2027 | 200.184 | 201.285 | 0.55% ▲ |
September 2027 | 201.343 | 202.814 | 0.73% ▲ |
October 2027 | 202.838 | 204.198 | 0.67% ▲ |
November 2027 | 204.273 | 205.682 | 0.68% ▲ |
December 2027 | 205.697 | 206.438 | 0.36% ▲ |
2028 also promises to be a victorious year for the US dollar, which can become worth 220 yen by December. But keep in mind that this is a long-term forecast, which is very likely to be corrected over the following five years. There are too many factors influencing the yen price.
Month | Min | Max | Change |
---|---|---|---|
January 2028 | 206.460 | 206.800 | 0.16% ▲ |
February 2028 | 206.869 | 208.903 | 0.97% ▲ |
March 2028 | 208.942 | 210.278 | 0.64% ▲ |
April 2028 | 210.348 | 211.941 | 0.75% ▲ |
May 2028 | 211.982 | 213.348 | 0.64% ▲ |
June 2028 | 213.375 | 214.478 | 0.51% ▲ |
July 2028 | 214.509 | 214.911 | 0.19% ▲ |
August 2028 | 214.936 | 216.036 | 0.51% ▲ |
September 2028 | 216.091 | 217.554 | 0.67% ▲ |
October 2028 | 217.590 | 218.998 | 0.64% ▲ |
November 2028 | 219.070 | 220.403 | 0.6% ▲ |
December 2028 | 220.414 | 221.188 | 0.35% ▲ |
The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by several factors, including:
Additionally, fluctuations in global commodity prices (particularly oil), and the overall health of the global economy also play a significant role in shaping the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen.
Predicting the dollar/yen exchange rate involves analyzing economic indicators, central bank policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Utilizing techniques like technical analysis, which examines historical price patterns, and fundamental analysis, which assesses economic factors, can aid in forecasting.
Factors such as interest rate differentials, inflation rates, trade balances, and political stability also impact predictions. Moreover, monitoring news and developments that could affect the US and Japanese economies helps refine forecasts. However, exchange rate prediction is inherently uncertain due to the complexity of global markets and unforeseen events.
As a popular trading Forex pair, USD/JPY is a nice option for both short and long-term trading. However, before placing your orders, do your research on both currencies and try to analyze their further movements. While the majority of technical AI-generated forecasts imply strengthening of the US dollar, you should keep your finger on the pulse of the market, national economies and geopolitical events.
Yes, the majority of banks and experts suggest that the US dollar will keep gaining strength against the yen during 2024 and beyond.
During 2025, the US dollar / Japanese yen rate is predicted to be in the range from 162 to 177, showing signs of steady growth.
According to the majority of price forecasts, the USD to JPY rate will keep growing.
Given the current rate movements and market trends, the USD/JPY rate may overcome the 200 threshold by the beginning of 2028. However, this is a long-term prediction that can be influenced by a large number of factors.
So far, there are no conditions for the Japanese yen to strengthen against the US dollar, so the rate is not expected to crash.
Given the current state of the American and Japanese economies, this is not possible – that would mark more than a 250% growth.
Given the current state of the American and Japanese economies, this is not possible – that would mark more than a 760% growth.